Sun Spots Part 2: UTEP Promises Insane Amount of Stadium-Level Shows For $99 Million Investment. I Explain Its Impossibility + Guns and (Online) Roses + Pondering Convention Space Request

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IF YOU HAVEN’T READ IT HERE’S PART 1:

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A complicated story like UTEP asking El Paso for $99 Million for the Sun Bowl is something I definitely would have opinions on, even if I didn’t write for a living. But because I wrote two decades ago, and I wrote about the music industry, particularly concert tours, worked some of the biggest concert tours out there then, and still have friends in that industry, I have more nuanced opinions.

Before I get to it, I want to say to anyone at UTEP who may be reading this and going, “Who in the Blue and Orange Hell is James Baca, The Notorious Banker, and why does he hate this idea to renovate the Sun Bowl?” let me address something to you first and foremost.

Not only do I hope the Sun Bowl gets a fresh paint of coat (yes, I meant to say it like that. It’s a shout out to a podcast of mine that I listen to), and I am rooting on the glow-up for an important historic part of the area I live in, but I will be a paying customer to the Sun Bowl for events even if it didn’t happen. I go to concerts. I am the demographic that goes, “$140 for Metallica? Let’s do this!”

I’ve always been in love with the idea of big stadium shows and frankly if one was 40-ish miles away in El Paso that I would want to see, I am going to go. So spare me any thought you may have that I have an agenda. Hell no! I want to see the best acts I can as close to my office, my bed, and my toilet as I can.

I respect the work of Heather Wilson. My late Aunt LOVED her when she ran for office in the late 1990s. I watch the Sun Bowl game, and because I write about sports, I cover UTEP…

But here’s why I am calling out UTEP. Here’s why I am going to call out the Sun Bowl Association. I think that this $99 Million dollar ask is solely for the Sun Bowl Game, and its people. Not for UTEP Football. Not for more concerts to come with a accessory-fortified stadium “more ready” to host them. In fact…

Your promise of more A-List Shows is not only laughably not realistic, but it is so far from being realistic, that I cannot tell my El Paso friends in good conscience they should ever vote for it, because they are being lied to pure and simple on the notion that a $99 Million dollar glow-up for the Sun Bowl will somehow lead to a steady stream of concerts the likes of which El Paso cannot currently get. It’s not going to happen. Even with a billion dollar industry like the concert biz, there’s not enough to give El Paso a slice.

I will explain in this column why taxpayers aka voters should vote no on this falsehood-laden proposal.

First off, I want to commend Kerry Mannix from KVIA-TV in El Paso. A MMJ, who my wife and I just saw anchor a newscast this past weekend for what might be her first time (she did a great job, by the way) got an interview with Barbara Hubbard, known affectionately to NM State as “Mother” Hubbard.

She is without a doubt the matriarch of the events scene in this part of the country, bringing shows like Carrie Underwood, Garth Brooks and George Strait to Las Cruces. I saw Strait at age 11, my first concert, and about 15 years later in the same venue, the Pan Am Center. I saw Garth Brooks a few years back at one of his 5 sold out shows in Cruces.

These are high-end shows, and Mother Hubbard has a knack for bringing quality events here.

Here’s the story, and the reason this story is important is Hubbard gives context in a way that I think people should listen. She ponders if multiple concert-ready venues means more concerts (it won’t), as El Paso has the new amphitheater going to be built, EP County Coliseum (even though it sucks terribly), Haskins Center, even freaking Wet N Wild Water World has hosted rock concerts I have been to.

By the way, Speaking Rock, the “Entertainment Center” (cough Casino cough) on the east side of town has rock acts for FREE often, including one I attended in October, Static-X. There was at least 5,000 people there for that. All those are on top of the Sun Bowl which we are talking about.

Las Cruces has Pan Am, Aggie Memorial, the space near Aggie Memorial where 4th of July festivities are held, the softball fields, etc.

There’s a lot of venues in these parts. If the demand for shows was there, this would be a conversation that would have been had pre-COVID.

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Fuzzy Math When It Comes To Amount of Shows Possible

The story starts with Paul Cicala mentioning that “UTEP is joining in on our recent interest in creating and approving more concert venues,” and he references the recently approved outdoor amphitheater on the old Cohen site and then he laughably mentions the proposed Sunland Park amphitheater which to me is so laughable, this is the last time I am going to mention it.

And what he says, and I know it is his words, but it got me. They want in on this too is all I got from his words. I am glad he said it that way, and that Kerry interviewed Hubbard because she mentioned in the piece that “The market’s slow, and if the market is oversaturated, it can happen to us (this area).”

That’s a key point. The market is slow. While there’s always somewhere in this country hosting a concert, it’s not like it once was, when Ozzfest and Lollapalooza roamed the country in my 20s.

Here’s the story:

The link for the KVIA story is here. What is said there by Wilson is interesting.

Wilson says that currently, the Sun Bowl is only used 30 days a year. UTEP argues that by adding eight more large events a year, the Sun Bowl could generate an extra $2.06 billion for the local economy over the next 30 years. That includes 605 new jobs and $82 million in tax revenue for El Paso, according to UTEP. The university says those numbers come from economic data and analysis from the Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness.

When I saw it was used 30 days a year, that actually surprised me. That’s 15 days or so more than I thought it was being used. I am sure someone has the breakdown, but Monster Jam is a weekend, 6-7 UTEP Football games, and the occasional high school all-star game of high school rivalry game, and that’s it! The occasional concert here or there, I am not even factoring in.

The economic data and analysis form the Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness I won’t even bother breaking down. This column isn’t about jobs or tax revenue. I am not nearly smart enough to have that conversation, nor do I care to have it. the $2.06 Billion is a number that I just don’t see off of a few more concerts a year, even eight of them.

Now let’s get to that point of Wilson’s quote: EIGHT MORE LARGE EVENTS A YEAR.

Umm.. No. Simply No.

Part of my routine from being a music writer is still to this day, I check to see what concerts are in “my area” to see if maybe I want to go to a few of them. My area consists of: Anywhere in New Mexico, El Paso, Phoenix, San Antonio, Tucson, and Vegas. Yes, even Vegas 11 hours away. Not Denver though. I am not partial to Denver the way I am in Vegas.

But I check for new shows, I still get press releases from artists announcing tours, and I typically am in the know before most people because of my knowledge of resources regarding concerts. I know what concert tours are going on, where they are playing when it is close to me, and what type of venue they are playing.

These are lists I compiled via Pollstar, a website I have a premium subscription on, because I learn so much more about this industry I loved. These are only STADIUM SHOWS, NOT ARENA OR AMPHITHEATER SHOWS. Those shows would not transplant to a Stadium venue if on tour primarily in those aforementioned venues. Most touring parties don’t have the equipment to support a Stadium-Show even if they wanted to and could sell more tickets.

San Antonio Alamodome

Chase Field - Downtown Phoenix

State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ (Phoenix)

Allegiant Stadium - Las Vegas

So, if you eliminate the duplicate concerts in multiple markets (Billy Joel and Journey) and eliminate the non-touring “festival” concert (November 7-9 Chase Field Country Event) you have 7 unique touring acts playing near us this summer.

7 is not 8

Even if ALL OF THEM came to El Paso in 2024, it would be one less than promised, but a lot of them would not come to El Paso, because of lack of radio airplay (Green Day and Billy Joel come to mind), Journey did not sell out the Pan Am Center a few months ago, so why would they go to a venue 4x the size? George Strait, I have no doubt could sell in El Paso, ditto Morgan Wallen, but it takes a lot of partners, including radio stations, and El Paso is not equipped with that in my estimation.

Now the reason I eliminated the “Festival” event in Phoenix (with Brooks and Dunn and Hank Jr.) is because there’s a rodeo attached to it, and that ties in with a sporting event, so it is not a concert “proper”. It is an add-on to the rodeo event, not the rodeo is an add-on to the concert.

Anyway, this is not a full-time touring event.

But again, how the hell are they going to get 8 MORE?!?!?!

Let’s look at the top 10 North American Tours last year.

So, surprisingly, RBD at number 10, DID play El Paso last year, one of the few stadium shows they had which helped them crack the top 10. But let me modify this list to shows that:

1. Would be able to fit the “average” attendance of the top shows. If it’s more than the 46,000 Sun Bowl capacity, I can’t include it.

2. Are not arena shows

Here’s the modified list.

I scratched out Drake and Springsteen because those were arena tours (expensive ones) and the circles indicate acts who had an average attendance that could not fit in Sun Bowl (Taylor Swift, Beyonce, Ed Sheeran, Karol G). Even though Beyonce and Karol G are averaging ticket sales close to Sun Bowl’s capacity, you have to understand they played HUGE venues with a lot of seats blocked off because of a big stage (what concert people call production kills)

So, Morgan Wallen (I can see that in EP. Heavy country music area), Pink, who I can’t see as the local pop stations barely play any Pink, much less new Pink, and George Strait, who I can see selling out the Sun Bowl, but if you see, there’s only 14 shows in 11 cities, and several of the shows are year-enders in Vegas not listed because they are tied in with NFR.

These are the other cities he played in 2023.

All NFL or Large MLB stadiums. Sun Bowl can’t match the size of those venues except maybe Milwaukee.

So George won’t be coming. So it’s Morgan Wallen, and that’s it. If Pink came, I just can’t see a full stadium in this market. In Phoenix? Vegas? All day!

Motley Crue which was in the Sun Bowl in 2023 was not in the top 10, despite the good sized crowd in El Paso. It was big, and people loved the show tons! I had fun despite the lack of singing chops Vince Neil has now. So I don’t know what the hell they are talking about.

In order to get 8 more A-List stadium level shows, they would have to get them all in a given year, and because of seat limitations, there’s zero chance that happens.

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The Guns N’ Roses Problem

I read a column from Adrian Broaddus on 600 ESPN EL PASO, which is the home of UTEP Miners sports. Good station. Good content when I do listen (I can’t do talk radio anymore) but Adrian is where I got the info for what Sun Bowl wants to do first. Thank you for that Adrian.

But something about his column, which is linked here just kind of rubbed me the wrong way, but I think through no fault of his own, it was just pushing the narrative.

Again, thankful for his info, but this line got me:

The Sun Bowl is hardly used outside the Miner football season, with concerts feeling like a one-per-year event and Monster Jam taking up a few weeks. The last concert at the Sun Bowl was Rebelde (RBD) and featured a sold-out show. Before RBD and Def Leppard/Motley Crue performed at the Sun Bowl in 2023, the stadium hadn't held a major concert since Guns N’ Roses with ZZ Top on Sept. 6, 2017. Currently, the Sun Bowl doesn't have the accessibility needed to regularly host these larger-scale concerts, like better 18-wheeler access and a field cover. Imagine if the Sun Bowl held a handful—or a dozen—concerts like this every year. It could boost tourism to El Paso for the major shows and have people across New Mexico, Mexico and Texas traveling to town for the A-list acts.

So, first of all the reason there was no major Sun Bowl concert since 2017 was… Do I really have to explain?

It rhymes with Movid-19.

Although yes, 2018 and 2019 didn’t have anything 2020, 2021, and even into 2022, COVID impacted the touring industry. Though Texas was “open”, the industry wasn’t churning out events at the pace they were or are going to now.

Back to GNR…

I was at the Guns N Roses show in 2017. In fact, 2017 is when I first thought about how crappy the Sun Bowl can be with a full house. My wife and I missed all of ZZ Top, the opener because of an issue with parking and then being frozen in line for 45 minutes for absolutely no reason and then all of a sudden, we moved 200 places in line in 5 minutes and were on the grounds in time for GNR. The bustle of people in the concourses, where you can’t move, people walking in every direction looking for beer, a place to piss and a place to throw their elote leavings gave both my wife and I anxiety. Two strong willed people overcome with anxiety with all the crowdedness and all the lack of direction the Sun Bowl has.

We made our way up to like row 478 of the Sun Bowl and got to see a band that is not on the top tier of my all-time list or hers, because she is younger than me, but for sure her dad and my aunts.

This is my photo I took with whatever POS Galaxy phone I had then.

As you can see we were almost “behind” the stage with a limited view of the band. Couldn’t see the big screens on the stage, but the floor was FULL!!!

Now, I am going to lighten this photo

There were tons of empty seats, but almost zero “production kills” from what I remember. Production kills are seats not available for sale because they are obstructed or in the way of a tv camera (if it were say WWE) or to give crew space to set up equipment. Every event planner has this discussion. Meaning? There were unsold seats galore. It was not FULL but the way the corridors of the Sun Bowl were crammed, you’d think it was a train headed to Calcutta with bodies on top of bodies.

But here’s the thing, ripped from Pollstar, a popular music industry service I subscribe to:

So, it was 92.2% full according to industry numbers. Not too bad. They made $3,087,980 in gross sales, which is decent, but far from a rousing success, because it means a per person cost of $77.62 per head in that building. I just don’t believe that number. Here’s why:

But I want you to look at the ticket prices. There was only 2 different tiers: $247 and $30. That’s it! Weird, right? There’s a reason for that.

Yes, a lot of people filled up the bowl on $30 tickets, which were likely $60 per ticket after fees, but a lot of those people in the bowl, including me and my wife paid $0 for the tickets. Why?

First let me ask another question: Have you ever heard of the phrase “papering the crowd?” I will define it shortly.

So, 1-800 FLOWERS, the online florist was running a special all Valentine’s Day 2017, months before the show in all markets the GNR tour was playing where you can buy flowers for your sweetheart for V Day, and if you spend a certain amount, you got two concert tickets to the GNR/ZZ Top concert in the city of your choice. I shit you not!

So, let me be clear. I love my wife. She is the greatest person I ever met. She is so sweet and loving and she has supported every crazy Cosmo Kramer scheme I have done over the years. That being said, her and I both believe spending a shit ton of money on flowers is ridiculous. I will buy her flowers, but I would rather buy a bunch of $6 bouquets from Albertsons and decorate the house than a huge thing of roses that mean nothing at the end of the day.

So I was managing the bank in 2017, and I saw this deal, and I had extra money in my pocket, and it made sense to me. We love concerts, we celebrate V Day, let’s buy these for my love.

Holy Shit! $56 a DOZEN!?!?!?!?!?!!?!?

So, this reminded me of the McDonald’s pies when I was a teen.
1 pie for 89 cents, 2 pies for $1. Guess who got obese on a great value? Me.

So James spent the most money he ever did for flowers to his bride in 2017. I got the two dozen roses.

$95 with tax and delivery fee. I got the link to the Ticketmaster site to pick my tickets in row 13,282 of the Sun Bowl the next day, and we waited for 7 months to see GNR, and aside from the terrible anxiety in the corridors, we loved the show!

So again, I am not saying everyone bought their honey flowers, but what I am saying is that Live Nation reportedly lost money on that particular show, because they “partnered” with 1800-Flowers to offer that Flowers + Free Tickets pack, meaning they basically bought their own tickets and moved them through the flower company with this deal to get asses in seats and maybe they will buy merch or do VIP meet and greet or whatever. It’s the thought of just get them in there, and we will find a way to separate them from their money.

Now to define papering the crowd. It’s mostly used in pro wrestling. It meant that the promoters, typically running televised events would give out free tickets in droves to insure they can prop up flailing attendance figures. I listen to a lot of Wrestling history podcasts and some of the gimmicks were, “Buy 1 get 2 free” or “Buy a Slim Jim at 7-11 and get two tickets to tonight’s event” or things like that. So when people bought one ticket, the promoters can add “3” to the tally and help them justify their investment by saying “Well, we got 10,000 announced here today.”

That’s why I never believe announced attendance numbers. Anywhere. Ever.
There was 30,000 people at GNR, but not nearly 40,000. I promise you that.

This concert actually shows why the push for 8 more events a year is problematic, nonsensical, and not commercially viable in EP.

So according to Adrian’s column a “major” concert can be a money-losing concert where people were given free tickets just for buying a specially marked vase of roses for their significant other.

While the Sun Bowl got their site fee, people got to work the concert, and people threw devil horns in the air, it was NOT a major success, though it was a big-time concert that was only tangentially supported by KLAQ, which is a sister station of 600 ESPN El Paso.

So seeing that, and seeing how Adrian ties the improvements that really are necessary but have nothing to do with who gets booked at Sun Bowl just reeks of talking points by the UTEP powers that be.

Tired of hearing me talk yet? I am, but I think I will have 2 more parts to this because there are things I can’t hit today. But I will do one more.

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So Why the Scoreboard and Convention Center Space?

You got to understand for me the red herring of this project aside from the flooring and electrical upgrades being needed to entice Tay Tay or Bey Bey is the need for a giant scoreboard “revamp” as most artists would not utilize said scoreboard on a stadium show because…. They have bigger LED screens in stadium shows (see photo from ESPN El Paso above) and usually there’s a big fucking stage blocking it.

Man I tried really hard not to swear. Sorry.

The other one is the 1,000 person capacity convention center space at the Sun Bowl itself. This is where the muck gets murkier. I hope I used those words right.

So, as mentioned the scoreboard is not used for the concerts. It will never be used for the concerts, so it is in essence PORK in the request. Again, Sun Bowl’s screen is 20x better than Aggie Memorial, though AMS will be getting a new one.

The Convention Center would have no purpose in a concert environment, unless you made it one. What do I mean? I mean it would never be used for a stadium show, unless maybe some promoter decided to rent it out for Meet and Greet purposes, or as a “lounge” for the artists. At that point, it is considered an accessory to the concert experience, not a necessity, and likely just another way to generate revenue.

Again, no problem with that. You make your money…But you are asking the city to pay for it?

This is why I think this is more the doing of the Sun Bowl Association.

I looked through years of their tax records today. No real reason to do so, just to understand how much money a non-profit entity like them generates in a year. It’s pretty surprising in a good way. They know how to generate revenue.

Here’s the most recent 2023 Tax Return for the Sun Bowl Association.

Now, aside from paying the teams $4 million and $330,000+ to “lease the Sun Bowl” I am assuming, there’s not a whole lot there to sniff around at, other than I would love to head a bowl game one day. Ha.

But then with the dissolution of the Pac-12 (aka Pac-2) and the uncertainty of teams coming to El Paso, though they landed a big fish with Notre Dame last year, there is no guarantee that quality teams will be coming to this bowl game unless the up the ante when it comes to what they pay the teams right?

This is how much the payouts are at other bowls:

It’s middle of the pack, but if they can just push a little harder, generate more revenue through say, banquets, galas, silent auctions at their toney new 1,000 capacity convention center where they can fundraise (again, not a terrible thing. You do You!) and use their revenue to try to build more relevance for a bowl matchup currently on the ropes because of conference uncertainty?

Is there going to be a push to enhance “the prestige” of the bowl through upping the ante in terms of payouts for teams, creating a mid-tier bowl arms race? I don’t know. But it is not unlikely right? If people are complaining that the Sun Bowl is only used 30x a year, why would you build a convention center if you also think it would only be used that amount of times a year. You wouldn’t.

Nonprofits can make money, people lose sight of that. I am in the process of launching a non-profit, and while I intend to help my community, I do want to be able to pay myself for my hard work.

So, yes, 501(c)3 organizations (as well as other categories of nonprofits) are allowed to make a profit. And as long as it comes from activities related to their stated mission and purpose, those profits are tax-exempt.

You have enough events are your fully-funded convention center where you pay no fee to rent out the place, because you and the school are simpatico at making this thing of theirs work, and you double your revenue because you now have a mission to host events, fundraise a little harder (remember I was a salesman for years) and push push push to generate revenue. Maybe you make more from your next TV contract with CBS with the ability to be more relevant with better teams for the game, which means more revenue from there, and boom. You are rolling in 8 figure revenue territory just like that, and somehow you convinced the CITY to subsidize a private interest.

Dude, let me just say now, I am not trying to make it political. It’s not to me. But people will make a lot of money for their entity off a handout from the city. Forget about the tax revenue and economic impact in 2053. I am talking about the first “Hawaiian Luau” at the new Sun Bowl Convention Center where it is $200 a plate, there’s a silent auction for a Tim Hardaway oil painting and Simone Biles is the Keynote speaker, which cost $50k to book. This is easily a futuristic reality that benefits less than 1% of the city of El Paso. Trust me.

But again, that’s ok. That is everywhere, but very rarely does a stadium owned by a college system (UT) ask the city for a handout like that, claims it will benefit fans to see better concerts, almost not even mention the UTEP football team, the primary resident in this stadium, and squeeze in accoutrements that really have nothing to do with the football team, nor the concerts you want.

Oh, and let’s not mention, there was recently a story of the city wanting to audit the Sun Bowl Association’s use of the rental car tax funds.

Link here

I will have a part 3, where I talk about the new amphitheater being built on the Cohen site, and how this announcement by the Sun Bowl can be seen as reaching for relevance, along with a personal commentary on why I believed the major rock concert industry has been ruined in El Paso in a very unique way that many of you may not understand. Also I will talk the impossibility of logistics in bringing some tours to the borderland. I reached out to an old promoter colleague of mine. Hoping to have more insight soon!

Thank you for reading, please check out my other column AGGREGATOR
http://goaggies.substack.com

James

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